Txawm hais tias qhov kub hnyiab ntawm tus kab mob tshiab tshiab hauv xyoo 2021 tseem muaj, kev siv tau maj mam tuaj nrog lub caij nplooj ntoo hlav tuaj txog. Tsav los ntawm kev thim rov qab hauv cov roj av, kev lag luam tshuaj hauv tsev tau coj mus rau hauv kev lag luam bull. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev ua lag luam aniline kuj tau nce mus rau lub sijhawm ci ntsa iab. Raws li lub Peb Hlis kawg, tus nqi lag luam ntawm aniline tau nce mus txog 13,500 yuan / tuj, qhov siab tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 2008.

Ntxiv rau qhov zoo ntawm tus nqi, kev lag luam aniline nce lub sijhawm no kuj tau txais kev txhawb nqa los ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau. Qhov ntim ntawm kev teeb tsa tshiab tau poob qis ntawm qhov kev cia siab. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, cov kev teeb tsa tseem ceeb tau hloov kho, ua ke nrog kev nthuav dav ntawm cov dej ntws hauv MDI, qhov kev thov sab yog muaj zog, thiab kev lag luam aniline tau nce. Thaum kawg ntawm peb lub hlis twg, qhov kev xav ntawm kev xav tau txias, feem ntau ntawm cov khoom lag luam tau nce siab thiab cov cuab yeej kho aniline tab tom yuav rov pib dua, thiab kev ua lag luam tig ib ncig thiab poob, uas xav tias yuav rov qab mus rau qhov kev xav.

Raws li qhov kawg ntawm 2020, kuv lub teb chaws tag nrho cov aniline tsim muaj peev xwm yog kwv yees li 3.38 lab tons, suav txog 44% ntawm lub ntiaj teb no ntau lawm. Kev xa khoom ntau dhau ntawm kev lag luam aniline, nrog rau kev txwv ib puag ncig, tau txo qis cov khoom siv hauv ob xyoos dhau los. Yuav tsis muaj kev ntxiv tshiab rau xyoo 2020, tab sis tau tsav los ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm cov dej ntws hauv MDI tsim muaj peev xwm, aniline yuav nce ntxiv rau xyoo 2021. Jiangsu Fuqiang's 100,000-tuj tshiab cog tau muab tso rau hauv lub Ib Hlis xyoo no, thiab Yantai Wanhua 540,000- ton tshiab cog kuj tau teem sijhawm los ua haujlwm rau xyoo no. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, Fujian Wanhua cov cog 360,000-tuj tau pib tsim kho thiab tau teem sijhawm los ua haujlwm hauv 2022. Los ntawm lub sijhawm ntawd, Tuam Tshoj tag nrho cov peev txheej aniline yuav ncav cuag 4.3 lab tons, thiab Wanhua Chemical tseem yuav dhau los ua lub ntiaj teb loj tshaj plaws aniline tsim khoom. nrog lub peev xwm ntau lawm ntawm 2 lab tons.

Daim ntawv thov downstream ntawm aniline yog qhov nqaim. 80% ntawm aniline yog siv rau kev tsim MDI, 15% yog siv rau hauv kev lag luam roj hmab additives, thiab lwm yam yog siv nyob rau hauv dyes, tshuaj thiab tshuaj tua kab. Raws li kev txheeb cais tshuaj hauv online, los ntawm 2021 txog 2023, MDI yuav muaj ze li ntawm 2 lab tons ntawm cov peev txheej ntau lawm thiab yuav zom 1.5 lab tons ntawm aniline ntau lawm. Roj hmab additives feem ntau yog siv rau hauv kev tsim cov log tsheb thiab txuas ntxiv mus rau kev lag luam tsheb. Hauv lub sijhawm tom qab kis mob, ob lub tsheb thiab cov log tsheb tau rov qab mus rau qee qhov. Nws cia siab tias qhov kev thov rau roj hmab additives yuav nce ntxiv. Txawm li cas los xij, thaum lub Cuaj Hlis 2020, European Union tau tshaj tawm tias aniline yog hom 2 carcinogen thiab qeb 2 teratogen, thiab nws raug pom zoo kom txwv tsis pub siv qee yam khoom ua si. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, ntau lub npe khaub ncaws kuj tseem suav nrog aniline hauv cov npe txwv cov khoom siv hauv xyoo tas los no. Raws li cov neeg siv khoom xav tau rau kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig thiab kev noj qab haus huv nce, qhov qis qis ntawm aniline yuav raug txwv qee yam.

Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm ntshuam thiab export, kuv lub teb chaws yog ib tug net exporter ntawm aniline. Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, cov khoom xa tawm tau suav txog li 8% ntawm cov khoom tsim tawm txhua xyoo. Txawm li cas los xij, kev xa tawm ntim hauv ob xyoos dhau los tau qhia txog kev poob qis xyoo tom qab xyoo. Ntxiv rau qhov nce hauv kev thov hauv tsev, kev kis tus kabmob tshiab, cov nqi se ntxiv los ntawm Tebchaws Meskas, thiab Indian kev tawm tsam yog qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau kev poob qis hauv aniline xa tawm. Cov ntaub ntawv kev lis kev cai qhia tau hais tias kev xa tawm xyoo 2020 yuav yog 158,000 tons, ib xyoos ib zaug txo ntawm 21%. Lub teb chaws xa tawm tseem ceeb suav nrog Hungary, Is Nrias teb thiab Spain. Wanhua Bosu muaj cov cuab yeej MDI hauv Hungary, thiab muaj qee qhov kev thov rau aniline hauv tsev. Txawm li cas los xij, Bosu cog npaj yuav nthuav dav lub peev xwm ntawm aniline xyoo no, thiab cov khoom lag luam aniline hauv tsev yuav poob ntxiv los ntawm lub sijhawm ntawd.

Feem ntau, qhov nce siab hauv kev ua lag luam aniline tau tsav los ntawm ntau yam txiaj ntsig ntawm cov nqi thiab cov khoom siv thiab kev thov. Hauv lub sijhawm luv luv, kev ua lag luam tau nce siab heev thiab kev pheej hmoo poob txhua lub sijhawm; nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm ntev, tus downstream yog txhawb los ntawm siab MDI xav tau, Kev ua lag luam yuav optimistic nyob rau hauv lub tom ntej no 1-2 xyoo. Txawm li cas los xij, nrog kev ntxiv dag zog ntawm kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig hauv tsev thiab ua tiav kev sib koom ua ke ntawm aniline-MDI, qhov chaw nyob ntawm qee lub chaw tsim khoom yuav raug nyem, thiab kev lag luam concentration yuav tsum nce ntxiv.