Lub Kaum Ib Hlis xaus, cov khoom siv PE tshiab txuas ntxiv poob qis; Kev thov qis dua, kev tso tawm tsawg; Lub siab xav ntawm kev lag luam rov ua dua tshiab kuj raug cuam tshuam los ntawm cov yam tsis zoo thiab hloov pauv tas li, tab sis qhov xwm txheej rov ua dua tshiab PE thauj khoom thiab tus nqi nplej nyuaj rau txav mus, uas tsis zoo rau tus cwj pwm lag luam ntawm kev lag luam rov ua dua tshiab.

Ua ntej, macro txhawb nqa passivation tshiab cov khoom siv PE poob siab poob qis

Lub lag luam polyethylene tau zom tag nrho los ntawm kev txhawb nqa muaj zog ntawm sab macro, tab sis tsis muaj kev coj zoo ntxiv lawm, kev txhawb nqa tus nqi txuas ntxiv mus, lub lag luam polyethylene rov qab mus rau qhov tsis zoo, thiab tus nqi lag luam nce thiab nqis. Cov chaw tsim khoom hauv qab tsuas yog xav tau tseem muaj, nrog rau kev poob qis ntawm tus nqi lag luam, cov chaw tsim khoom hauv qab los ua kom muaj cov khoom lag luam qis, cov khoom lag luam tsim khoom thiab cov khoom lag luam hauv tsev khaws khoom hauv zej zog me ntsis poob qis, lub lag luam polyethylene pib maj mam tsim lub hauv qab.

Tus nqi PE ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tshiab txuas ntxiv poob qis, qhov sib txawv ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tshiab thiab qub txuas ntxiv nqaim, txij li lub Kaum Ib Hlis 24, qhov sib txawv ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tshiab thiab qub tau poob ntawm 1200 yuan / ton, thiab nyob rau hauv qhov kev nyuaj siab macro tsis zoo, qhov sib txawv ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tshiab thiab qub yuav txuas ntxiv nqaim, ntxiv txwv tsis pub cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab.

Qhov thib ob, pib thiab nres-pib kev yuav khoom nrog kev txiav txim rau cov khoom loj

Daim duab qhia txog kev pib ua khoom siv PE rov ua dua tshiab

Lub lim tiam no, muaj qhov sib txawv ntawm kev ua haujlwm ntawm cov lag luam ua yeeb yaj kiab ua liaj ua teb hauv ntau thaj chaw ntawm lub tebchaws. Ntawm lawv, tus nqi ua haujlwm ntawm cov lag luam hauv Northeast thiab North China poob qis ntawm 1% -5%, feem ntau yog vim huab cua txias hauv Northeast China ua ntej, qhov kawg ntawm lub caij ua yeeb yaj kiab yog ua ntej lwm thaj chaw, thiab tus nqi ua haujlwm hauv North China poob qis me ntsis. Hauv East China, South China, Central China, Northwest thiab Southwest China, tus nqi ua haujlwm ntawm cov lag luam tau nce ntawm 1% thiab 5%.

Raws li qhov xwm txheej tam sim no ntawm kev ua lag luam, 61.40% ntawm cov lag luam ua yeeb yaj kiab ua liaj ua teb tseem tuav lub siab ruaj khov ntawm tus nqi linear, thiab ntseeg tias lub siab waand-see ntawm cov lag luam kawg muaj zog, thiab cov xaj ntawm cov yeeb yaj kiab ua liaj ua teb pib txo qis, kev txhawb nqa sab saud tsis muaj zog, thiab tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw feem ntau ruaj khov hauv theem tom qab. 31.58% ntawm cov lag luam ua yeeb yaj kiab ua liaj ua teb tuav lub siab bearish ntawm tus nqi linear, ntseeg tias lub siab tos-thiab-saib ntawm cov lag luam kawg muaj zog, thiab cov xaj ntawm cov yeeb yaj kiab ua liaj ua teb pib txo qis, kev txhawb nqa sab saud tsis muaj zog, thiab tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw feem ntau ruaj khov hauv theem tom qab. 7.02% ntawm cov lag luam ua yeeb yaj kiab ua liaj ua teb tuav lub siab bullish ntawm tus nqi linear, tias qhov kev poob qis tag nrho ntawm kev tsim cov yeeb yaj kiab ua liaj ua teb tsis pom tseeb, tseem muaj kev txhawb nqa rau kev thov khoom siv raw, thiab tus nqi polyethylene muaj qhov chaw me me rau kev tshawb nrhiav. Hauv kev xaus, feem ntau cov lag luam khoom downstream tuav lub zeem muag ruaj khov ntawm kev ua lag luam tav su, uas yog qhov zoo rau tus cwj pwm lag luam downstream ntawm kev ua lag luam tav su, thiab tuaj yeem muab qee qhov kev txhawb nqa rau cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab.

Qhov thib peb, lub siab xav tsis zoo txog kev lag luam rov tsim kho dua tshiab tsis ruaj khov

Tam sim no, thaj chaw rov ua dua tshiab, kev xav tsis zoo sib kis, kev txhawb nqa tsis zoo yog qhov nyias nyias, Xiaobian hauv kev kwv yees kev lag luam PE rov ua dua tshiab, 39.97% saib ntawm kev xav kom pom kev ruaj khov, 50.86% kev xav tsis zoo, 8.63% tsim nyog bullish. Nyob rau hauv lub caij tsis-lub caij, kev yuav khoom siv raw los ntawm cov khoom lag luam downstream tau poob qis heev, thiab tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv tshiab PE tau hloov pauv qis, txawm hais tias qhov sib txawv ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv tshiab thiab qub tseem nyob hauv qhov ntau ntawm ntau dua 1,000 yuan ib tuj, tab sis qhov sib txawv ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv tshiab thiab qub tsis txaus hauv kev ua lag luam yav tom ntej, thiab qhov sib txawv ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv tshiab thiab qub yuav txuas ntxiv mus nqaim. Kev rov zoo ntawm kev lag luam hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws qeeb, cov xaj khoom lag luam downstream off-season yuav nyuaj dua los nrhiav, kev tsim kho tsis siab ntawm kev yuav khoom siv raw tsis muaj zog. Raws li cov laj thawj saum toj no, kev lag luam rov ua dua tshiab muaj tus cwj pwm tsis zoo rau kev ua lag luam yav tom ntej.

Hauv kev xaus, qhov kev nce siab tsis ntev los no hauv thaj teb, txhua tus neeg koom nrog hauv kev lag luam muaj kev hloov pauv loj lossis me, tab sis kev lag luam rov ua dua tshiab tau ceev faj dua, ua ke nrog kev txhawb nqa ntawm sab nqi, kev lag luam rov ua dua tshiab ruaj khov dua, kev ua lag luam yav tom ntej yuav txuas ntxiv mus ruaj khov kev ua lag luam, qhov ceev ntawm cov khoom lag luam qeeb. Fujian siab siab dawb dhau thawj cov khoom siv tseem ceeb siv 6200-6300 yuan / ton, Hebei qis siab Wahaha cov khoom siv zom khoom siv 4400 yuan / ton, Hebei siab siab dawb dhau thawj cov khoom siv tseem ceeb siv tus nqi 6100-6300 yuan / ton, Hebei Wahaha cov khoom siv dawb tseem ceeb siv tus nqi 5900-6000 yuan / ton, Juxian EVA granulation tseem ceeb siv tus nqi 6000-6200 yuan / ton.