Abstract: Nyob rau thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2023, kev ua lag luam phenol hauv tebchaws tau nce thiab poob, thiab tus nqi feem ntau yog tsav los ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev thov. Tus nqi ntawm qhov chaw tau hloov pauv ib puag ncig 6000-8000 yuan / ton, uas yog nyob rau theem qis hauv tsib xyoos dhau los. Raws li Longzhong cov ntaub ntawv, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm phenol hauv East China hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2023 yog 7,410 yuan / ton, poob qis 3,319 yuan / ton, lossis 30.93%, piv rau 10,729 yuan / ton hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2022. Qhov siab tshaj plaws hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yog 8275 yuan / ton thaum kawg Lub Ob Hlis; Qhov qis tshaj plaws yog 6200 yuan ib ton thaum ntxov Lub Rau Hli.

1. Kev tshuaj xyuas kev ua lag luam

Thaum hnub so Xyoo Tshiab rov qab mus rau lub nroog, txawm hais tias Jiangyin phenol chaw nres nkoj cov khoom muag tsawg rau 11,000 tons, tab sis xav txog qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom siv phenol ketone tshiab rau hauv kev tsim khoom, kev yuav khoom hauv davhlau ya nyob twg qeeb qeeb, kev lag luam poob qis ua rau kev lag luam tos thiab saib; Tom qab cov khoom siv tshiab tau muab tso rau hauv kev tsim khoom tsawg dua li qhov xav tau, qhov chaw nruj kom txhawb nqa kev lag luam, nrog rau hnub so Caij Nplooj Ntoos Hlav los txog, kev tiv thaiv ntawm kev thauj mus los ntawm thaj chaw nce ntxiv, thiab kev ua lag luam maj mam tig mus rau lub xeev kaw. Tom qab rov qab mus rau kev ua lag luam thaum lub caij so Caij Nplooj Ntoos Hlav, phenol tau txais tos qhov pib zoo, nrog rau kev nce ntawm 400-500 yuan / ton hauv ob hnub ua haujlwm xwb. Xav txog qhov rov qab los ntawm lub davhlau ya nyob twg tom qab hnub so, nws siv sijhawm rau kev ua lag luam kom tsis txhob nce thiab poob, thaum tus nqi qis li 7700 yuan / ton, xav txog tus nqi siab thiab tus nqi nruab nrab, tus neeg xa khoom lub hom phiaj xa khoom kom tau txiaj ntsig tsis muaj zog. Thaum Lub Ob Hlis, ob pawg ntawm cov khoom siv phenol ketone hauv Lianyungang ua haujlwm tau zoo, txoj cai hais lus ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv tsev hauv kev lag luam phenol tau txhim kho, thiab kev ua haujlwm ntawm cov nkoj thiab cov khoom thauj los ntawm txawv teb chaws tau cuam tshuam los ntawm kev siv waxing thiab waxing uas koom nrog kev xa khoom ntawm cov neeg xa khoom. Txawm hais tias kev xa khoom xa tawm thiab kev sib tham hauv tib lub sijhawm tau txhawb nqa thawj zaug, kev txhawb nqa tau txwv, thiab kev ua lag luam tag nrho tau nce ntau dua thiab poob tsawg dua. Thaum Lub Peb Hlis, qhov pib ntawm bisphenol A downstream tau txo qis, phenolic resin kev sib tw hauv tsev siab, qhov kev poob qis hauv qhov kawg ntawm kev thov ua rau muaj kev poob qis hauv phenol hauv ntau qhov chaw, txawm hais tias tus nqi siab thiab tus nqi nruab nrab thaum lub sijhawm los txhawb kev ua lag luam nce siab, tab sis tus pas siab tsis yooj yim, kev ua lag luam qaug zog intersperted ntawm lawv.

Txij lub Plaub Hlis mus txog rau lub Tsib Hlis, cov khoom siv phenol ketone hauv tsev tau coj mus rau lub sijhawm saib xyuas hauv nruab nrab, qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov sib tham, kev ua lag luam hauv lub Plaub Hlis tau sib xyaw, qhov chaw sab nraud hauv lub Tsib Hlis tsis muaj zog, sab thov tau qeeb, kev kho dua tshiab ntawm cov khoom siv nyuaj rau tso tawm, qhov kev poob qis coj los ntawm kev ua lag luam, thiab tus nqi qis txuas ntxiv mus tsim kho tshiab. Nyob ze rau nruab nrab ntawm Lub Rau Hli, kev ua haujlwm twv txiaj hauv qab tau nce kev koom tes ntawm kev lag luam, kev ncig xyuas hauv tsev nce ntxiv, kev thauj khoom ntawm tus neeg tuav khoom tau yooj yim dua, kev txaus siab nce ntxiv, thiab kev rov ua kom tiav ntawm lub davhlau ya nyob twg ua ntej hnub so Dragon Boat Festival, qhov chaw txhawb nqa ntawm lub ntiajteb txawj nqus tau nce siab tas li. Tom qab Dragon Boat Festival, kev ua haujlwm twv txiaj hauv khw tau xaus ib ntus, kev koom tes hauv kev lag luam qeeb qeeb, kev xa khoom sab xa khoom tau poob qis, qhov kev tsom mus rau qhov sib txawv me ntsis, thiab kev lag luam tau ntsiag to.

2. Kev nyuaj siab rau qhov txiaj ntsig thiab kev poob

Nyob rau thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2023, qhov nruab nrab ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tuam txhab phenol ketone yog -356 yuan / ton, txo qis ntawm 138.83% xyoo-rau-xyoo, qhov nyiaj tau los siab tshaj plaws tom qab nruab nrab lub Tsib Hlis yog 217 yuan / ton, thiab tus nqi qis tshaj plaws yog -1134.75 yuan / ton thaum ntxov Lub Rau Hli. Nyob rau thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2023, qhov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov khoom siv phenol ketone hauv tsev feem ntau tsis zoo, thiab lub sijhawm tag nrho ntawm cov nyiaj tau los yog li 1 lub hlis, thiab cov nyiaj tau los tsis pub tshaj 300 yuan / ton. Txawm hais tias tus nqi sib txawv ntawm cov khoom siv raw ob npaug hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2023 tsawg dua li lub sijhawm tib yam hauv xyoo 2022, tus nqi ntawm phenol ketone kuj zoo ib yam, txawm tias phem dua li qhov kawg ntawm cov khoom siv raw, thiab qhov xwm txheej poob nyiaj nyuaj rau yooj yim.

3. Kev kwv yees ua lag luam

Nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej ntawm xyoo 2023, nyob rau hauv qhov kev cia siab tias cov khoom siv phenol hauv tsev thiab cov khoom siv bisphenol A tshiab yuav raug muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm, cov qauv kev muab khoom thiab kev thov yuav tseem yog tus thawj coj, thiab kev ua lag luam yuav hloov pauv lossis ib txwm muaj. Cuam tshuam los ntawm txoj kev npaj tsim khoom ntawm cov khoom siv tshiab, kev sib tw ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv tsev thiab cov khoom xa tuaj, cov khoom lag luam hauv tsev thiab hauv tsev yuav raug ntxiv zog, qhov pib thiab nres ntawm cov khoom siv phenol ketone hauv tsev yog qhov sib txawv, thiab qhov xwm txheej kev xa khoom thiab kev sib tw hauv tsev hauv qee thaj chaw hauv qab tuaj yeem txo qis, qhov nrawm ntawm kev tsim khoom tshiab ntawm bisphenol A thiab qhov pib ntawm cov khoom siv tshiab kuj tseem ceeb heev, ntawm chav kawm, nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm kev poob tas mus li hauv cov tuam txhab phenol ketone. Tus nqi thiab kev txav mus los ntawm tus nqi kuj tseem yuav tsum tau saib xyuas. Kev txiav txim siab tag nrho qhov xwm txheej uas cov hauv paus ntsiab lus ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov yuav ntsib thiab qhov xwm txheej tam sim no ntawm cov txiaj ntsig thiab kev poob, nws xav tias kev ua lag luam phenol hauv tsev hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej yog qhov nyuaj rau muaj kev nce thiab poob loj, thiab qhov ntau ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi yuav yog 6200-7500 yuan / ton.