Paub meej: Hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023, kev lag luam phenol hauv tsev tau nce thiab poob, thiab tus nqi tau tsav los ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau. Qhov chaw tus nqi hloov pauv ntawm 6000-8000 yuan / ton, uas yog nyob rau theem qis hauv tsib xyoos dhau los. Raws li Longzhong txheeb cais, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm phenol nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Tuam Tshoj nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023 yog 7,410 yuan / ton, nqis 3,319 yuan / tuj, los yog 30.93%, piv nrog 10,729 yuan / ton nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022. taw tes nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yog 8275 yuan / ton nyob rau hauv lig Lub ob hlis ntuj; Qhov taw tes qis yog 6200 yuan ib tuj thaum lub Rau Hli.

1. Kev tshuaj xyuas kev ua lag luam

Xyoo Tshiab Hnub so rov qab mus rau lub nroog, txawm hais tias Jiangyin phenol chaw nres nkoj cov khoom lag luam qis qis rau 11,000 tons, tab sis xav txog qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom siv phenol ketone tshiab rau hauv kev tsim khoom, lub davhlau ya nyob twg yuav qeeb, kev lag luam poob nce kev lag luam tos thiab pom; Tom qab cov cuab yeej tshiab tau muab tso rau hauv kev tsim khoom tsawg dua li qhov xav tau, qhov chaw tau nruj kom txhawb kev lag luam nce siab, nrog rau lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival hnub so, kev tiv thaiv ntawm kev thauj mus los hauv cheeb tsam tau nce, thiab kev lag luam maj mam tig mus rau lub xeev kaw. Tom qab rov qab mus rau kev ua lag luam thaum lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival hnub so, phenol zoo siab tos txais qhov pib zoo, nrog nce ntawm 400-500 yuan / tuj hauv ob hnub ua haujlwm xwb. Xav txog qhov rov qab los ntawm lub davhlau ya nyob twg tom qab hnub so, nws yuav siv sijhawm rau kev ua lag luam kom tsis txhob nce thiab poob, thaum tus nqi qis li 7700 yuan / ton, xav txog tus nqi siab thiab tus nqi nruab nrab, tus neeg xa khoom lub hom phiaj xa tawm cov txiaj ntsig tau poob qis. Thaum Lub Ob Hlis, ob pawg ntawm phenol ketone cov cuab yeej hauv Lianyungang tau ua haujlwm zoo, txoj cai hais lus ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev hauv phenol ua lag luam tau txhim kho, thiab kev ua haujlwm ntawm cov nkoj thiab cov khoom thauj tau raug cuam tshuam los ntawm lub davhlau ya nyob twg waxing thiab waxing koom nrog cov khoom xa tuaj. . Txawm hais tias kev xa khoom xa tuaj thiab kev sib tham hauv tib lub sijhawm tau pib txhawb nqa, kev txhawb nqa tau txwv, thiab tag nrho kev lag luam tau nce ntau thiab poob qis. Nyob rau lub Peb Hlis, pib ntawm downstream bisphenol A poob qis, phenolic resin domestic kev sib tw siab, kev poob qis hauv qhov kev thov kawg ua rau poob qis hauv phenol hauv ntau qhov chaw, txawm hais tias tus nqi siab thiab tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm lub sijhawm los txhawb kev lag luam nce siab, tab sis. lub siab stick tsis yooj yim, lub lag luam qaug zog intermittently intersperted ntawm lawv.

Txij lub Plaub Hlis mus txog rau lub Tsib Hlis, cov khoom siv hauv tsev phenol ketone tau coj mus rau lub sijhawm ua haujlwm hauv nruab nrab, qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau kev sib tham sib ua si, kev ua lag luam hauv lub Plaub Hlis tau sib xyaw, ib puag ncig sab nraud hauv lub Tsib Hlis tsis muaj zog, qhov kev thov sab yog sluggish, cov cuab yeej kho dua yog nyuaj tso tawm, qhov kev poob qis coj los ntawm kev ua lag luam, thiab tus nqi qis txuas ntxiv mus rau kev tsim kho tshiab. Nyob ze rau nruab nrab ntawm Lub Rau Hli, kev lag luam nqes qis tau nce kev koom tes ntawm kev lag luam, qhov chaw ncig hauv tsev tau nce ntxiv, kev thauj khoom siab ntawm cov neeg nqa khoom tau yooj yim, kev txaus siab tau nce ntxiv, thiab qhov tsim nyog rov ua dua ntawm lub davhlau ya nyob twg ua ntej Dragon Boat Festival hnub so, qhov chaw txhawb nqa ntawm lub ntiajteb txawj nqus tsis tu ncua sawv. Tom qab Dragon Boat Festival, kev lag luam kev lag luam kev lag luam ib ntus tuaj txog qhov kawg, kev koom tes hauv kev lag luam tau qeeb, cov khoom xa khoom xa tuaj tsis muaj zog, lub hom phiaj tseem ceeb qhia txog qhov tsis muaj zog me ntsis, thiab kev lag luam tig ntsiag to.

2. Kev kub siab ntawm cov nyiaj tau los thiab poob

Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023, qhov nruab nrab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm phenol ketone lag luam yog -356 yuan / ton, ib tug txo ntawm 138.83% xyoo-rau-xyoo, tus nqi siab tshaj plaws tom qab lub Tsib Hlis yog 217 yuan / tuj, thiab tus nqi qis tshaj. yog -1134.75 yuan / ton thaum lub Rau Hli. Hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023, tag nrho cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev phenol ketone feem ntau yog qhov tsis zoo, thiab tag nrho cov txiaj ntsig lub sijhawm yog li 1 lub hlis, thiab cov nyiaj tau los tsis tshaj 300 yuan / tuj. Txawm hais tias tus nqi sib txawv ntawm cov khoom siv raw ob zaug hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023 yog tsawg dua tib lub sijhawm xyoo 2022, tus nqi ntawm phenol ketone kuj zoo ib yam, txawm tias phem dua li cov khoom siv raw kawg, thiab cov txiaj ntsig poob yog qhov nyuaj rau kev yooj yim. .

3. Kev ua lag luam outlook

Nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm 2023, raws li kev cia siab tias domestic phenol thiab downstream bisphenol Ib qho khoom siv tshiab yuav raug muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm, cov khoom siv thiab cov qauv xav tau tseem yuav muaj txiaj ntsig, thiab kev ua lag luam yuav hloov pauv lossis ib txwm muaj. Kev cuam tshuam los ntawm cov phiaj xwm tsim khoom ntawm cov khoom siv tshiab, kev sib tw ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws, cov khoom siv hauv tsev thiab cov khoom siv hauv tsev yuav ua rau muaj zog ntxiv, pib thiab nres cov xwm txheej ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev phenol ketone yog qhov sib txawv, thiab kev sib tw export thiab kev sib tw hauv qee thaj chaw qis. tuaj yeem txo qis, qhov nrawm ntawm kev tsim khoom tshiab ntawm bisphenol A thiab pib ntawm cov khoom siv tshiab kuj tseem ceeb heev, tau kawg, nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm kev poob tsis tu ncua hauv phenol ketone cov lag luam. Tus nqi thiab tus nqi txav kuj yuav tsum tau saib. Kev txiav txim siab txog qhov xwm txheej uas cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau yuav raug ntsib thiab qhov xwm txheej tam sim no tau txais txiaj ntsig thiab poob, nws xav tias kev lag luam phenol hauv lub xyoo thib ob yog qhov nyuaj kom muaj kev nce siab thiab poob qis, thiab tus nqi hloov pauv. Qhov ntau yuav tsum yog 6200-7500 yuan / ton.