Cov kev lag luam sib txawv muaj cov kev xav tau sib txawv rau ammonia zoo thiab tus nqi.

Txij li xyoo 2022, qhov kev npaj ua haujlwm ntsuab ammonia hauv tsev tau muab tso rau hauv kev tsim kho, txiav txim siab tias lub sijhawm tsim kho ntawm txoj haujlwm feem ntau yog 2 txog 3 xyoos, qhov project ntsuab ammonia hauv tsev yog hais txog kev tsim khoom hauv nruab nrab. Kev lag luam kwv yees tias los ntawm 2024, domestic ntsuab ammonia los yog yuav ua tiav batch nkag mus rau hauv kev ua lag luam, thiab cov khoom muaj peev xwm yuav nyob ze rau 1 lab tons / xyoo los ntawm 2025. Los ntawm kev xav ntawm kev lag luam xav tau rau hluavtaws ammonia, cov khoom lag luam sib txawv muaj qhov sib txawv. cov kev xav tau ntawm cov khoom zoo thiab tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv ammonia, thiab nws tseem yuav tsum tau pib los ntawm cov yam ntxwv sib txawv ntawm txhua qhov kev lag luam txuas los tshawb txog lub sijhawm ua lag luam ntawm ntsuab ammonia.

Raws li tag nrho cov khoom siv thiab kev thov qauv ntawm hluavtaws ammonia hauv Suav teb, cov khoom lag luam zoo xav tau ntawm txhua ntu kev lag luam thiab tus nqi ntawm ammonia, NENG Jing kev tshawb fawb tsuas yog txheeb xyuas cov txiaj ntsig thiab kev lag luam ntawm ntsuab ammonia hauv txhua qhov kev lag luam rau kev lag luam siv.

01 Green ammonia lag luam muaj peb lub ntsiab lus qhia

Nyob rau theem no, cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau ntawm cov khoom siv hluavtaws ammonia hauv tsev yog qhov sib npaug, thiab muaj qee qhov muaj peev xwm ntau dhau.

Ntawm qhov kev thov sab, pom meej kev siv txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv. Raws li National Bureau of Statistics thiab kev lis kev cai cov ntaub ntawv, lub synthetic ammonia lag luam yog dominated los ntawm domestic noj, thiab pom meej noj ntawm domestic hluavtaws ammonia yuav nce li ntawm 1% ib xyoos twg los ntawm 2020 txog 2022, mus txog 53.2 lab tons los ntawm 2022. 2025, nrog rau kev nthuav dav ntawm caprolactam thiab lwm yam khoom siv hauv qab, nws xav tias yuav txhawb nqa kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom siv ammonia, thiab qhov pom tseeb yuav ncav cuag 60 lab tons.

Ntawm cov khoom siv, tag nrho cov khoom muaj peev xwm ntawm cov khoom siv ammonia yog nyob rau theem ntawm "hauv qab tawm". Raws li cov ntaub ntawv ntawm Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, txij li thaum qhib lub rov qab tsim muaj peev xwm ntawm hluavtaws ammonia nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj thaum lub sij hawm "13th Tsib-Xyoo Plan" lub sij hawm, cov txheej txheem ntawm kev tsim muaj peev xwm tau tiav los ntawm 2022, thiab ntau lawm. Lub peev xwm ntawm cov khoom siv ammonia tau hloov pauv los ntawm kev txo qis rau thawj zaug, rov qab los ntawm 64.88 lab tons / xyoo hauv 2021 txog 67.6 lab tons / xyoo, thiab ntau dua 4 lab tons / xyoo ntawm lub peev xwm txhua xyoo (tsis suav nrog ntsuab ammonia) yog npaj yuav tsaws. Los ntawm 2025, lub peev xwm ntau lawm los yog ntau tshaj 70 lab tons / xyoo, qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm overcapacity yog siab.

Kev ua liaj ua teb, tshuaj lom neeg kev lag luam thiab lub zog yuav yog peb lub lag luam tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv hluavtaws thiab ammonia ntsuab. Kev ua liaj ua teb thiab tshuaj lom neeg ua lag luam ntawm cov khoom siv ammonia. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv ntawm Zhuochuang Cov Ntaub Ntawv, xyoo 2022, kev noj cov khoom siv ammonia hauv kev ua liaj ua teb yuav suav txog li 69% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom siv hluavtaws ammonia hauv Suav teb, feem ntau yog rau kev tsim cov urea, phosphate chiv thiab lwm yam chiv; Kev noj cov tshuaj ammonia hauv kev lag luam tshuaj suav txog li 31%, uas yog siv los tsim cov khoom siv tshuaj xws li nitric acid, caprolactam thiab acrylonitrile. Lub zog sector yog yav tom ntej incremental lag luam rau hluavtaws ammonia. Raws li kev txheeb cais thiab kev suav ntawm Kev Tshawb Fawb Lub Zog, nyob rau theem no, kev noj cov khoom siv ammonia hauv lub zog hluav taws xob tseem tsawg dua 0.1% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom siv hluavtaws ammonia, thiab los ntawm 2050, qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm cov khoom siv ammonia hauv lub zog. daim teb xav tias yuav ncav cuag ntau dua 25%, thiab cov peev txheej ntawm cov ntawv thov feem ntau suav nrog cov neeg nqa khoom hydrogen, cov roj tsheb thauj mus los, thiab ammonia-doped combustion hauv thermal fais fab nroj tsuag.

02 Kev thov ua liaj ua teb - Kev tswj hwm tus nqi qis yog qhov muaj zog, ntsuab ammonia cov paj tau paj me me me, qhov kev thov rau ammonia hauv kev ua liaj ua teb yog qhov ruaj khov. Ammonia noj scenario hauv kev ua liaj ua teb feem ntau suav nrog kev tsim cov urea thiab ammonium phosphate fertilizer. Ntawm lawv, urea ntau lawm yog qhov loj tshaj plaws ammonia noj scenario hauv kev ua liaj ua teb, thiab 0.57-0.62 tons ntawm ammonia tau noj rau txhua 1 tuj ntawm urea tsim. Raws li National Bureau of Statistics, los ntawm 2018 txog 2022, cov khoom siv hauv tsev urea hloov pauv ntawm 50 lab tons / xyoo, thiab cov kev thov sib txuas rau cov khoom siv ammonia yog nyob ib ncig ntawm 30 lab tons / xyoo. Tus nqi ntawm ammonia siv los ntawm ammonium phosphate fertilizer yog kwv yees li 5 lab tons / xyoo, uas kuj tseem ruaj khov.

Kev tsim cov nitrogen chiv hauv kev ua liaj ua teb muaj kev xav tau zoo rau cov purity thiab zoo ntawm ammonia raw cov ntaub ntawv. Raws li lub teb chaws tus qauv GB536-88, kua ammonia muaj cov khoom zoo, cov khoom ua ntej, cov khoom tsim nyog peb qib, cov ntsiab lus ammonia mus txog 99.9%, 99.8%, 99.6% lossis ntau dua. Nitrogen chiv, xws li urea, muaj ntau qhov yuav tsum tau ua rau qhov zoo thiab purity ntawm cov khoom, thiab manufacturers feem ntau xav tau cov kua ammonia raw cov ntaub ntawv kom ncav cuag qib ntawm cov khoom tsim nyog. Tus nqi tag nrho ntawm ammonia hauv kev ua liaj ua teb yog qhov tsawg. Los ntawm kev xaav ntawm ammonia thiab tus nqi ntawm ammonia, domestic urea thiab ib co ammonium phosphate fertilizer zus tau tej cov ammonia tsob nroj nws tus kheej, tus nqi ntawm ammonia nyob ntawm lub lag luam nqi ntawm thee, natural gas thiab efficiency ntawm ammonia nroj tsuag. , tus nqi ntawm ammonia feem ntau yog 1500 ~ 3000 yuan / tuj. Ntawm qhov tod tes, tus nqi txais tau ntawm ammonia raw khoom hauv kev ua liaj ua teb yog tsawg dua 4000 yuan / tuj. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv ntau ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv zej zog, txij xyoo 2018 txog 2022, urea yog kwv yees li 2,600 yuan / tuj ntawm tus nqi siab tshaj plaws, thiab txog 1,700 yuan / tuj ntawm tus nqi qis tshaj. Kev tshawb fawb hluav taws xob ua ke nrog ntau theem ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom, cov nqi txheej txheem thiab lwm yam, yog tias tsis muaj kev poob, urea ntawm tus nqi siab tshaj plaws thiab qis tshaj tus nqi sib xws rau cov nqi ammonia txog li 3900 yuan / tuj rau 2200 yuan / ton, nyob rau hauv tus nqi ntsuab ammonia. kab thiab hauv qab theem.