Hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, kev ua lag luam aniline hloov pauv nce mus, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab txhua hli maj mam nce. Ua piv txwv North Tuam Tshoj ua lag luam, qhov qis tshaj plaws hauv peb lub hlis twg tau tshwm sim thaum Lub Ib Hlis, nrog tus nqi ntawm 9550 yuan / ton, thiab qhov siab tshaj plaws tau tshwm sim hauv lub Peb Hlis, nrog tus nqi ntawm 13300 yuan / ton, thiab tus nqi sib txawv ntawm siab thiab qis yog 3750 yuan / ton. Qhov tseem ceeb zoo rau kev nce siab txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Peb Hlis yog los ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau. Ntawm qhov tod tes, thawj peb lub hlis twg, cov chaw tsim khoom loj hauv tsev tau txais kev saib xyuas hnyav thiab kev lag luam cov khoom muag tau qis. Ntawm qhov tod tes, qhov kev rov qab los ntawm qhov kev xav tau tom qab lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival ua rau muaj kev txhawb nqa zoo rau kev ua lag luam.

Muab kev ua tau zoo txuas ntxiv nruj txhawb nqa aniline nqi nce

Hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, aniline kev ua lag luam muab kev ua tau zoo txuas ntxiv kom nruj kom thawb tus nqi. Tom qab Xyoo Tshiab Hnub, cov nqes qis ua ntej hnub so xav tau nce ntxiv, cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau sab zoo, tus nqi pib tshwm sim qis dua. Tom qab lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival, kev kho dua tshiab ntawm cov khoom siv aniline hauv tsev tau nce. Nyob rau lub Ob Hlis, kev lag luam hauv tsev aniline tag nrho ntawm kev thauj khoom yog 62.05%, nqis 15.05 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus ntawm Lub Ib Hlis. Tom qab nkag mus rau lub Peb Hlis, qhov kev thov davhlau ya nyob twg tau zoo. Txawm hais tias cov khoom lag luam tau rov qab los rau 74.15%, cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau tseem muab kev txhawb nqa pom tseeb rau kev ua lag luam, thiab tus nqi aniline hauv tsev tau nce ntxiv rau lub Peb Hlis. Raws li lub Peb Hlis 31, tus nqi lag luam tseem ceeb ntawm aniline hauv North Tuam Tshoj 13250 yuan / tuj, piv nrog 9650 yuan / tuj nyob rau lub Ib Hlis thaum ntxov, nce ntxiv ntawm 3600 yuan / tuj, nce ntawm 37.3%.

Tshiab downstream peev tso tawm aniline mov tseem yuav nruj

Nyob rau hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2023, domestic aniline ntau lawm yog hais txog 754,100 tons, nce los ntawm 8.3% peb lub hlis twg ntawm lub quarter thiab 1.48% xyoo-rau-xyoo. Txawm hais tias muaj kev nce ntxiv, 400,000-tuj / xyoo MDI chav tsev ntawm Wanhua nyob rau hauv downstream Fujian Province tau muab tso rau hauv lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022, uas maj mam hloov mus rau qhov qub tom qab thawj peb lub hlis twg. Lub caij no, 70,000-tuj / xyoo cyclohexylamine chav tsev ntawm Wanhua hauv Yantai tau pib sim ua haujlwm hauv lub Peb Hlis. Tom qab lub peev xwm tsim tawm tshiab tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm, qhov kev thov rau cov khoom siv raw aniline nyob rau hauv nqes hav tau nce ntau. Ua rau thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm tag nrho aniline kev ua lag luam tseem nyob rau hauv nruj cov khoom, thiab tom qab ntawd muaj kev txhawb zog rau tus nqi.

Nqe poob siab muaj zog thawj peb lub hlis twg aniline kev lag luam profits maj nce

Thawj peb lub hlis twg aniline cov txiaj ntsig tau pom qhov sib txawv nce ntxiv. Txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Peb Hlis, coj East Tuam Tshoj ua piv txwv, qhov nruab nrab cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov lag luam aniline hauv tsev yog 2,404 yuan / ton, nqis 20.87% lub hli nyob rau lub hli thiab 21.97% xyoo rau xyoo. Nyob rau hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, vim hais tias nruj mov nyob rau hauv lub domestic aniline kev ua lag luam, tus nqi yog obviously txhawb los ntawm widening nqi sib txawv nrog downstream cov khoom, thiab kev lag luam profit tau maj kho synchronously. Raws li kev lag luam hauv tsev thiab kev lag luam xa tawm rau aniline hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg thiab lub quarter thib plaub ntawm 2022 tau zoo, kev lag luam tau txais txiaj ntsig ntau ntxiv. Yog li ntawd, cov nyiaj tau los ntawm aniline nyob rau hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2023 poob rau ib tug sequential.

Kev thov hauv tsev tau nce thiab kev xa tawm poob qis hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg

Raws li cov ntaub ntawv kev lis kev cai thiab Zhuo Chuang cov ntaub ntawv kwv yees, cov khoom xa tawm hauv tsev aniline hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2023 yuav tsum nyob ib ncig ntawm 40,000 tons, lossis qis dua 1.3% ntawm lub quarter dhau los, lossis qis dua 53.97% xyoo-rau-xyoo. Txawm hais tias kev tsim khoom hauv tsev aniline tau tswj hwm qhov kev nce ntxiv hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, kev xa tawm ntawm aniline hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg tuaj yeem pom qhov poob qis me ntsis los ntawm lub quarter dhau los vim qhov pom tseeb nce hauv kev thov hauv tsev thiab tsis muaj txiaj ntsig zoo hauv kev lag luam xa tawm. Piv nrog rau thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2022, vim qhov pom tseeb nce ntawm cov khoom siv raw hauv Tebchaws Europe hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2022, tus nqi siab ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom hauv zos aniline tau nce ntxiv, thiab qhov kev thov ntshuam ntawm aniline khoom los ntawm Tuam Tshoj tau nce ntau. Raws li qhov pom tseeb kom zoo dua ntawm tus nqi xa tawm, cov neeg tsim khoom hauv tsev aniline tau xav ntau dua rau kev xa tawm. Nrog rau kev tso tawm tshiab downstream muaj peev xwm nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj, cov khoom siv nruj ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev ntawm aniline yuav pom tseeb dua. Nws cia siab tias kev lag luam xa tawm hauv lub quarter thib ob tseem tuaj yeem tswj hwm qib qis nrog cov khoom siv tsawg.

Lub quarter thib ob xav tias tsis muaj zog ua haujlwm poob siab

Nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob, aniline lag luam yuav tsum tau oscillate. Thaum lub Peb Hlis lig aniline tus nqi tau mus txog theem siab, qhov qis qis tau txais cov khoom tsis sib haum xeeb, kev ua lag luam muaj kev pheej hmoo siab tau nce rau lub Plaub Hlis pib nce siab sai sai. Nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm luv luv thiab nruab nrab, chav tsev aniline tau maj mam rov pib dua thiab ua haujlwm ze rau tag nrho cov khoom thauj, thiab cov khoom lag luam sab hauv zoo li xoob. Txawm hais tias Huatai npaj yuav ua tiav kev tshuaj xyuas thiab kho lub Plaub Hlis, Fuqiang thiab Jinling npaj yuav kuaj xyuas thiab kho thaum lub Tsib Hlis, tom qab lub Tsib Hlis, qhov kev lag luam log tsheb tau nkag mus rau lub caij tawm, uas txo qis qhov kev thov rau roj hmab auxiliaries downstream ntawm aniline, thiab cov khoom siv thiab kev thov sab ntawm aniline kev ua lag luam yuav maj mam poob qis. Los ntawm cov qauv ntawm cov khoom siv raw, txawm hais tias tus nqi ntawm cov ntshiab benzene thiab nitric acid tseem muaj zog, tab sis vim tias tam sim no cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev lag luam aniline tseem tseem nplua nuj, yog li tus nqi ntawm qhov zoo boost los yog txwv. Feem ntau, nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob, nyob rau hauv lub keeb kwm yav dhau ntawm tsis muaj zog mov thiab kev thov, lub domestic aniline lag luam yuav khiav tag nrho cov ntau yam ntawm oscillations.