一.Qhov thib ob ib nrab ntawm qhov kev kwv yees

1.1 Kev kwv yees ntau lawm

Raws li Longzhong cov ntaub ntawv tshawb fawb, aniline cov khoom lag luam kev lag luam npaj yuav tsim 385,000 tons ntawm cov peev txheej tsim nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo 2023, thiab tsis muaj peev xwm tshem tawm. Lub peev xwm tsim tawm tshiab yog feem ntau faib hauv South Tuam Tshoj, thiab cov tuam txhab npaj siab tau nruab nrog cov khoom siv qis qis, kev loj hlob ntawm cov saw hlau, thiab txo qhov kev yuav khoom thiab kev thauj mus los thiab lwm cov nqi khiav lag luam.

Tom qab kev tso tawm ntawm aniline tshiab muaj peev xwm nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, nws yuav zoo heev hloov lub domestic aniline mov qauv, thiab cov aniline ntau lawm nyob rau hauv South Tuam Tshoj yuav radiate mus rau ib ncig ntawm downstream factories nyob rau hauv ib tug nyob ze, zoo txo ​​tus nqi ntawm downstream raw khoom procurement. . Nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, Yantai Wanhua tau npaj los kho dua, thiab tag nrho nws cov aniline-MDI cov khoom siv tau nres, lossis cuam tshuam cov khoom ntawm aniline rau qee cov neeg siv khoom mus sij hawm ntev. Tsis tas li ntawd, Fujian Wanhua npaj yuav muab tso rau hauv kev tsim khoom hauv lub Cuaj Hli, uas muaj kev cuam tshuam zoo rau tus nqi ntawm aniline nyob rau sab qab teb, thiab nws xav tias tus nqi ntawm aniline nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yuav yog 9000-12000 yuan / ton

1.2 Kev kwv yees siv tau

Nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, domestic polymerization MDI txij nkawm cov cuab yeej yog concentrated nyob rau hauv lub yim hli ntuj, Kaum ib hlis thiab lub Kaum Ob Hlis, lub zuag qhia tag nrho cov cuab yeej yuav tsum tau txo qis, ntxiv rau txawv teb chaws pab kiag li lawm nyob rau hauv Lub Xya hli ntuj thiab Lub yim hli ntuj muaj ntau ntau teev ntawm cov cuab yeej tu, tag nrho. muab kev cog lus, tus nqi tag nrho hauv tsev yuav muaj kev txhawb nqa me me, tab sis thaum Lub Yim Hli thiab Lub Cuaj Hli vim tias tuaj txog ntawm lub caij ntuj sov, huab cua kub kub tuaj yeem cuam tshuam rau cov dej ntws tag nrho, kev txwv lub zog, kev tsim khoom tsawg. Raws li kev lag luam khoom siv hauv tsev mus rau lub caij off-season, tus nqi yog qhov nyuaj rau kev txhawb nqa. Thaum Lub Kaum Hli thiab Kaum Ib Hlis, nrog rau cov khoom siv hauv tsev hauv qab thiab cov kav dej hauv kev lag luam nkag mus rau lub caij nyoog siab tshaj plaws, thiab kev saib xyuas zoo ntawm qee cov khoom siv yuav tsum, nws muaj peev xwm nce mus ntxiv. Nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, lub hom phiaj tseem ceeb yog nyob rau hauv cov khoom shrinkage thiab kev thov sab raws li nram qab no. Xav tias tus nqi ntawm polymerized MDI nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yog khaws cia ntawm 14300-16300 yuan / tuj, qhov kev thov yuav tsum tau rov qab nyob rau hauv lub xyoo, tus nqi nruab nrab nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yog me ntsis siab dua cov theem. nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, thiab tus nqi yuav tsum tau khaws cia ntawm 15500-17000 yuan / ton.

1.3 Net ntshuam/net export forecast

Tam sim no, cov khoom siv hauv tsev thiab kev thov ntawm aniline yog qhov sib npaug, thiab kev txaus siab rau kev xa tawm tsis muaj zog. Txawm hais tias qhov txo qis ntawm cov nqi tsim khoom hauv tsev aniline, qhov kev thov qis qis kuj muaj zog, uas muaj qee yam kev txhawb nqa rau tus nqi siab ntawm aniline. Nws cia siab tias qhov ntau ntawm aniline xa tawm nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yuav tsis hloov ntau npaum li cas piv nrog rau thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, tab sis nws tsis tau txiav txim tias cov nyiaj aniline yuav raug muag txawv teb chaws tom qab Fujian Wanhua muab tso rau hauv lub lag luam. .

1.4 Supply thiab xav tau nyiaj tshuav kwv yees

二.Tus nqi ntawm qhov thib ob ib nrab ntawm kev kwv yees

Nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, tus nqi kwv yees ntawm cov ntshiab benzene yog 6280-6800 yuan / ton, qhia ib tug qauv ntawm thawj zaug nce thiab ces poob.

Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm cov roj crude, cov nqi roj nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo tau staged ib tug rebound lub sij hawm, qhia ib tug qauv ntawm nce thawj zaug thiab tom qab ntawd poob rov qab rau tag nrho, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab txhua hli tuaj yeem hloov pauv hauv thaj tsam ntawm 75-78 US. nyiaj daus las / thoob, nrog qhov sib txawv me me.

Hais txog kev muab khoom, feem ntau ntawm cov ntshiab benzene nthuav dav hauv 2023 tau ua tiav hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, nrog rau tag nrho ntau dua 3 lab tons ntawm cov roj av benzene thiab hydrobenzene tshiab tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm, thiab cov benzene ntshiab. ntau lawm nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yuav tsum qhia ib tug dav nce piv nrog rau thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo. Nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, tsuas yog 100,000 tons ntawm Anqing Petrochemical muaj peev xwm tau nthuav dav nyob rau hauv Lub Xya Hli, thiab 200,000 tons ntawm Longjiang Chemical tau tsim tshiab thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo. Txawm li cas los xij, hydrogenated benzene tseem muaj Puyang Zhonghui 500,000 tons, Chongqing Huafeng 200,000 tons, Ningxia Tongde Hlub 100,000 tons, Zaozhuang Zhenxing 200,000 tons, Henan Jinyuan Phase II 200,000 tons ntawm cov khoom tsim tawm tshiab rau hauv cov phiaj xwm ntau lawm. peb lub hlis twg.

Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev thov, downstream zus tau tej cov ntshiab benzene nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yog concentrated, nrog rau cov plaub txheej ntawm styrene ntawm Zhejiang Petrochemical, styrene ntawm Anqing Petrochemical, Hengli tshiab phenol thiab adipic acid, Fujian Wanhua aniline, Lusi, Shenyuan , Baling Petrochemical tshiab caprolactam thiab lwm yam khoom siv tau npaj yuav muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm, thiab Qingdao Bay, Huizhou Zhongxin Phenol, uas tau raug ncua hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo. Ntxiv nrog rau cov tsoos downstream, octane xav tau los ntawm ethylbenzene thiab cyclohexane yuav tsum muab kev txhawb nqa rau kev noj benzene ntshiab. Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, ntau yam downstream feem ntau ntsib ib tug poob ntawm kev lag luam load tom qab muaj peev xwm nthuav, thiab kev noj cov ntshiab benzene yog qis dua lub peev xwm ntau lawm. Nyob rau hauv cov ntsiab lus ntawm qhov kawg noj nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yog tseem tsis optimistic, nws yuav tsum tau hais tias kev noj cov ntshiab benzene yuav tsum tau kho kom txo qis dua tus nqi theoretical.

Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm ntshuam, davhlau ya nyob twg xav tau nyob rau hauv lub tebchaws United States thiab cov teb chaws Europe tseem muaj kev nyuaj siab, thiab lub caij ntuj sov mus txawv tebchaws nyob rau hauv lub tebchaws United States nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yuav xaus rau lub Cuaj Hli Ntuj, lub siab nyiam ntawm Northeast Asia mus export ntshiab benzene rau Tuam Tshoj. xav tias yuav nce ntxiv nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, thiab cov khoom ntim tuaj yeem rov qab mus rau qib 250-300,000 tons / hli.

Zuag qhia tag nrho, tus nqi ntawm cov roj crude nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yog ib tug kuj ruaj, thiab tus nqi txhawb yog consolidated. Cov khoom siv hluav taws xob qis qis tshaj qhov kev teeb tsa tshiab ntawm cov roj av benzene thiab hydrobenzene, tab sis qhov kev ua haujlwm tiag tiag yuav tsum poob qis tag nrho, thiab cov ntim ntim yuav tsum nce ntxiv, yog li cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau ntawm cov ntshiab benzene tau txhim kho, tab sis qhov ntau yog txwv. Tus nqi ntawm cov ntshiab benzene yuav tsum nyob rau hauv peb lub hlis twg vim yog rov qab los ntawm downstream txij nkawm cov cuab yeej thiab kev tsim kho cov cuab yeej tshiab kom tau tus nqi nce zog, tab sis vim hais tias ntawm lub zog downstream tsis muaj kev koom ua ke profits, ntshiab benzene sawv saum toj kawg nkaus. qhov qis, nrog kev tso tawm ntawm hydrobenzene muaj peev xwm ntau lawm nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib plaub, cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau rov tig mus rau cov khoom siv ntau, ces tus nqi yuav tsum qhia qhov kev poob qis.

Nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob, aniline tau cuam tshuam los ntawm kev xav tau tsis muaj zog thiab pib nkag mus rau hauv cov channel downward. Raws li kev npaj kho dua tshiab ntawm Yantai Wanhua thaum Lub Yim Hli, yog tias txoj kev npaj kho dua tshiab tau ua tiav raws li tau teem tseg, nws tuaj yeem rub tawm lub khw aniline. Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli, Fujian Wanhua thiab Chongqing Changfeng 2 units tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm, thiab cov khoom siv ntawm aniline nyob rau sab qab teb Tuam Tshoj thiab Tuam Tshoj sab hnub poob tau nce ntau, ua kom cov khoom lag luam nyob ib puag ncig. Zuag qhia tag nrho, lub quarter thib ob thiab peb lub hlis twg ntawm aniline lag luam tsis muaj zog, tab sis mus rau lub quarter thib plaub, qee qhov qis qis pib tau txais kev txiav txim rau xyoo tom ntej, qhov kev thov rau cov khoom siv raw muaj qee qhov nce, lub quarter thib plaub ntawm aniline tus nqi yuav tsum rov qab los. piv nrog lub quarter thib peb.