Ib. Ib nrab thib ob ntawm kev kwv yees tseem ceeb

1.1 Kev Kwv Yees Txog Kev Tsim Khoom

Raws li kev tshawb fawb Longzhong Information, kev lag luam khoom aniline npaj yuav tsim 385,000 tons ntawm lub peev xwm tsim khoom hauv ib nrab xyoo 2023, thiab tsis muaj phiaj xwm rho tawm peev xwm. Lub peev xwm tsim khoom tshiab feem ntau yog faib rau Sab Qab Teb Tuam Tshoj, thiab lub tuam txhab tau npaj tseg yog nruab nrog cov khoom siv khoom lag luam downstream, kev txhim kho ntawm cov saw hlau kev lag luam, thiab kev txo qis ntawm kev yuav khoom thiab kev thauj mus los thiab lwm yam nqi khiav lag luam.

Tom qab tso tawm lub peev xwm tsim aniline tshiab yav tom ntej, nws yuav hloov pauv tus qauv muab aniline hauv tebchaws, thiab kev tsim aniline hauv South China yuav nthuav dav mus rau cov chaw tsim khoom nyob ib puag ncig ze ze, ua rau txo tus nqi ntawm kev yuav khoom siv raw. Hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej, Yantai Wanhua npaj yuav kho dua tshiab, thiab tag nrho nws cov khoom siv aniline-MDI raug tso tseg, lossis cuam tshuam rau kev muab aniline rau qee tus neeg siv khoom ntev. Tsis tas li ntawd, Fujian Wanhua npaj yuav muab tso rau hauv kev tsim khoom hauv lub Cuaj Hli, uas muaj kev cuam tshuam loj rau tus nqi ntawm aniline hauv sab qab teb, thiab nws xav tias tus nqi ntawm aniline hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej yuav yog 9000-12000 yuan / ton.

1.2 Kev Kwv Yees Txog Kev Siv Khoom

Nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej, cov khoom siv kho MDI hauv tsev polymerization tau tsom mus rau lub Yim Hli, Kaum Ib Hlis thiab Kaum Ob Hlis, tag nrho cov khoom siv yuav tsum tau txo qis, ntxiv rau cov khoom siv txawv teb chaws hauv Lub Xya Hli thiab Lub Yim Hli muaj ntau pawg ntawm kev kho khoom siv, tag nrho cov khoom siv cog lus, tag nrho cov nqi hauv tsev yuav muaj kev txhawb nqa me ntsis, tab sis thaum Lub Yim Hli thiab Cuaj Hlis vim yog lub caij ntuj sov tuaj txog, huab cua kub siab yuav cuam tshuam rau tag nrho cov khoom thauj, kev txwv hwj chim, kev tsim khoom tsawg. Ib yam li kev lag luam khoom siv hauv tsev mus rau hauv lub caij tawm, tus nqi nyuaj rau txhawb nqa. Thaum Lub Kaum Hli thiab Kaum Ib Hlis, nrog rau cov khoom siv hauv tsev thiab cov kav dej lag luam nkag mus rau lub caij siab tshaj plaws, thiab kev saib xyuas zoo ntawm qee cov khoom siv xav tau, nws muaj peev xwm txuas ntxiv nce siab. Hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej, qhov tseem ceeb yog kev txo qis ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev ua raws li sab thov. Xav txog tias tus nqi ntawm polymerized MDI hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yog khaws cia ntawm 14300-16300 yuan / ton, qhov kev thov yuav rov qab los hauv lub xyoo, tus nqi nruab nrab hauv ib nrab xyoo thib ob yog siab dua me ntsis ntawm qib hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, thiab tus nqi xav tau khaws cia ntawm 15500-17000 yuan / ton.

1.3 Kev kwv yees txog kev xa khoom tuaj/xa khoom tawm tag nrho

Tam sim no, kev muab khoom thiab kev thov hauv tsev ntawm aniline yog qhov sib npaug zoo, thiab kev txaus siab rau kev xa khoom tawm tsis muaj zog. Txawm hais tias cov nqi tsim khoom aniline hauv tsev txo qis, kev thov hauv qab no muaj zog heev, uas muaj kev txhawb nqa rau tus nqi siab ntawm aniline. Nws xav tias qhov ntau ntawm kev xa khoom aniline hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej yuav tsis hloov pauv ntau piv rau ib nrab xyoo thawj zaug, tab sis nws tsis tau txiav txim siab tias cov aniline seem yuav raug muag txawv teb chaws tom qab Fujian Wanhua tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm.

1.4 Kev kwv yees txog kev sib npaug ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov khoom

2. Tus nqi ntawm ib nrab thib ob ntawm qhov kev kwv yees

Nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej, tus nqi kwv yees ntawm benzene ntshiab yog 6280-6800 yuan / ton, qhia txog tus qauv ntawm thawj zaug nce thiab tom qab ntawd poob.

Hais txog roj av nyoos, tus nqi roj hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej tau muaj lub sijhawm rov qab los, qhia txog kev nce siab ua ntej thiab tom qab ntawd poob dua tag nrho, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab txhua hli tuaj yeem hloov pauv ntawm 75-78 US dollars / barrel, nrog rau qhov hloov pauv me me.

Hais txog kev muab khoom, feem ntau ntawm kev nthuav dav benzene ntshiab hauv xyoo 2023 tau ua tiav hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, nrog rau tag nrho ntau dua 3 lab tons ntawm cov chav tshiab ntawm roj av benzene thiab hydrobenzene tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm, thiab kev tsim cov benzene ntshiab hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej yuav pom tias muaj kev nce ntxiv ntau piv rau thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo. Hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej, tsuas yog 100,000 tons ntawm Anqing Petrochemical muaj peev xwm tau nthuav dav hauv Lub Xya Hli, thiab 200,000 tons ntawm Longjiang Chemical tau tsim tshiab thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo. Txawm li cas los xij, hydrogenated benzene tseem muaj Puyang Zhonghui 500,000 tons, Chongqing Huafeng 200,000 tons, Ningxia Tongde Hlub 100,000 tons, Zaozhuang Zhenxing 200,000 tons, Henan Jinyuan Theem II 200,000 tons thiab lwm yam 1.2 lab tons ntawm cov khoom siv tshiab npaj yuav muab tso rau hauv kev tsim khoom hauv lub quarter thib plaub.

Hais txog kev thov, kev tsim cov benzene ntshiab hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej tau tsom mus rau, suav nrog cov txheej txheem plaub ntawm styrene ntawm Zhejiang Petrochemical, styrene ntawm Anqing Petrochemical, Hengli tshiab phenol thiab adipic acid, Fujian Wanhua aniline, Lusi, Shenyuan, Baling Petrochemical tshiab caprolactam thiab lwm yam khoom siv npaj yuav muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm, thiab Qingdao Bay, Huizhou Zhongxin Phenol, uas tau ncua sijhawm hauv ib nrab xyoo thawj zaug. Ntxiv nrog rau cov qauv ib txwm muaj, kev thov octane los ntawm ethylbenzene thiab cyclohexane xav tias yuav muab kev txhawb nqa rau kev siv benzene ntshiab. Txawm li cas los xij, hauv ib nrab xyoo thawj zaug, cov qauv downstream feem ntau ntsib kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam tom qab nthuav dav peev xwm, thiab kev siv benzene ntshiab qis dua qhov peev xwm tsim khoom. Hauv cov ntsiab lus ntawm kev siv kawg hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej tseem tsis zoo, nws xav tias kev siv benzene ntshiab yuav raug kho dua tshiab qis dua li tus nqi theoretical.

Hais txog kev xa khoom tuaj, qhov kev thov kawg hauv Tebchaws Meskas thiab Tebchaws Europe tseem poob qis, thiab lub caij ntuj sov mus ncig tebchaws siab tshaj plaws hauv Tebchaws Meskas hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej yuav xaus rau lub Cuaj Hli, qhov kev txaus siab ntawm Northeast Asia los xa tawm benzene ntshiab mus rau Tuam Tshoj yuav nce ntxiv hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej, thiab qhov ntim khoom xa tuaj yuav rov qab mus rau theem ntawm 250-300,000 tons / hli.

Zuag qhia tag nrho, tus nqi roj av hauv ib nrab xyoo thib ob yog qhov ruaj khov, thiab kev txhawb nqa tus nqi tau sib sau ua ke. Cov cuab yeej tsim khoom theoretical downstream ntau dua li qhov kev teeb tsa tshiab ntawm roj av benzene thiab hydrobenzene, tab sis tus nqi ua haujlwm tiag tiag yuav poob qis tag nrho, thiab qhov ntim ntshuam yuav nce ntxiv, yog li sab kev muab khoom thiab kev thov ntawm benzene ntshiab tau zoo dua, tab sis qhov ntau yog txwv. Tus nqi ntawm benzene ntshiab yuav tsum tau nyob rau hauv peb lub hlis twg vim yog kev rov qab los ntawm cov khoom siv kho vaj tse downstream thiab kev tsim kho cov khoom siv tshiab kom tau txais tus nqi nce zog, tab sis vim yog qhov tsis muaj zog downstream tsis koom ua ke cov txiaj ntsig, benzene ntshiab nce siab rau sab saum toj ntawm qis, nrog rau kev tso tawm ntawm hydrobenzene muaj peev xwm tsim khoom hauv plaub lub hlis twg, sab kev muab khoom thiab kev thov rov qab tig mus rau kev muab khoom ntau, tom qab ntawd tus nqi yuav tsum tau qhia txog kev sib txawv qis.

Nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob, aniline raug cuam tshuam los ntawm kev thov tsis muaj zog thiab pib nkag mus rau hauv txoj kev poob qis. Raws li kev npaj kho dua tshiab ntawm Yantai Wanhua thaum Lub Yim Hli, yog tias txoj kev npaj kho dua tshiab tau ua tiav raws li tau teem tseg, nws yuav tuaj yeem rub lub khw aniline. Txawm li cas los xij, thaum lub Cuaj Hli, Fujian Wanhua thiab Chongqing Changfeng 2 chav tsev tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm, thiab kev muab khoom ntawm aniline hauv South China thiab Southwest China tau nce ntxiv ntau heev, nplua nuj cov chaw muab khoom nyob ib puag ncig. Zuag qhia tag nrho, lub quarter thib ob thiab lub quarter thib peb ntawm kev lag luam aniline tsis muaj zog, tab sis mus rau hauv lub quarter thib plaub, qee qhov downstream pib tau txais kev txiav txim rau xyoo tom ntej, qhov kev thov rau cov khoom siv raw muaj qee qhov nce ntxiv, lub quarter thib plaub ntawm aniline nqi yuav rov qab los piv rau lub quarter thib peb.