Nkag mus rau xyoo 2023, cov tshuaj epoxy hauv tsev tseem txuas ntxiv nthuav dav peev xwm, tab sis qhov kev thov rov qab los ntawm qhov chaw qis dua qhov xav tau, qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm kev muab khoom lag luam thiab kev thov tau hais txog, thiab tus nqi lag luam tag nrho qhia txog kev poob qis. Qhov nqaim ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm epoxy resin thiab kev poob qis ntawm kev siv peev xwm hauv kev lag luam tau dhau los ua cov yam ntxwv ntawm kev ua haujlwm hauv kev lag luam hauv ib nrab xyoo 2023, tab sis qhov ntim xa tawm ntawm epoxy resin tau nce ntxiv ntau piv rau lub sijhawm tib yam xyoo tas los, thiab qhov kev xa tawm tau txo qis ntau. Cov xwm txheej tshiab hauv kev lag luam epoxy resin tom qab yuav tsum txhawj xeeb txog dab tsi, thiab kev lag luam yav tom ntej yuav txhim kho li cas?

Kev tshuaj xyuas ntawm cov yam ntxwv ua haujlwm ntawm kev lag luam epoxy resin hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2023:

1. Lub peev xwm tsim khoom tshiab ntawm epoxy resin txuas ntxiv raug tso tawm, thiab kev tsim khoom hauv tsev nce ntxiv

Raws li Longzhong cov ntaub ntawv saib xyuas cov ntaub ntawv txheeb cais, txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog rau Lub Rau Hli 2023, lub peev xwm tsim cov tshuaj epoxy resin hauv tebchaws tau nthuav dav mus txog 3.182,500 tons / xyoo, thiab peb lub tuam txhab tshiab tau ntxiv, Zhejiang Haobang Theem II 80,000 tons / xyoo, Anhui stellar 25,000 tons / xyoo, Dongying Hebang 80,000 tons / xyoo, nrog rau tag nrho cov peev xwm tsim khoom tshiab ntawm 185,000 tons. Lub peev xwm tsim khoom txhua hli ntawm cov tshuaj resin tau nce mus txog 265,200 tons, nce ntxiv 16.98%.

2, epoxy resin nqi qis dua, qhov volatility tag nrho yog qhov nruab nrab

Txij li xyoo 2023, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm cov tshuaj epoxy hauv tsev tau hloov pauv qis. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv saib xyuas ntawm Longzhong Information, txij li lub Rau Hli 30, kev sib tham tseem ceeb ntawm cov kua epoxy resin hauv Sab Hnub Tuaj Suav teb yog 12,000-12,500 yuan / ton, poob qis 2,700 yuan / ton txij thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo, poob qis 18.12%; Tus nqi sib tham tseem ceeb ntawm cov tshuaj epoxy khoom hauv thaj av Huangshan yog 12,000-12,500 yuan / ton, poob qis 2,300 yuan / ton txij thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo, poob qis 15.97%. Hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm kev lag luam tseem ceeb yog 12,000-15,700 yuan / ton, nrog qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm 3,700 yuan / ton, thaum nyob rau tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, qhov kev hloov pauv yog 20800-29300 yuan / ton, nrog qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm 8,500 yuan / ton. Qhov sib piv, qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi ntawm kev ua lag luam resin hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2023 qis dua li lub sijhawm dhau los.

3, qhov nyiaj tau los ntawm epoxy resin tau poob qis heev, thiab qhov siv tau ntawm cov kua dej tau poob qis heev

Nyob rau thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2023, kev loj hlob ntawm kev siv khoom kawg tsawg dua li qhov xav tau, qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov ntawm epoxy resin yog qhov tseem ceeb, thiab tus nqi lag luam tag nrho yog qis dua. Txawm hais tias qhov chaw nruab nrab ntawm lub ntiajteb txawj nqus ntawm cov khoom siv raw kuj tsis muaj zog, qhov kev poob qis yog me dua li ntawm epoxy resin, thiab epoxy resin tau nkag mus rau hauv lub xeev poob txij li Lub Ob Hlis. Thaum kawg ntawm Lub Rau Hli, qhov kev poob siab tshaj plaws ntawm 788 yuan / ton rau cov kua epoxy resin thiab 657 yuan / ton rau cov khoom epoxy resin. Vim yog qhov poob loj ntawm cov txiaj ntsig hauv kev lag luam, cov chaw tsim khoom kua epoxy resin tau txo qis kev tsim khoom thiab cov lus hais tsis zoo, qee tus neeg tsim khoom tau siv lub sijhawm los kho dua tshiab, thiab qhov kev siv peev xwm ntawm kev lag luam kua epoxy resin txuas ntxiv poob qis, poob rau hauv 40% thaum Lub Rau Hli.

4, epoxy resin imports tau shrunk sharply, tab sis exports tau nce sharply

Raws li cov ntaub ntawv saib xyuas ntawm Longzhong Information, tag nrho cov khoom xa tuaj ntawm epoxy resin hauv Suav teb txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog lub Tsib Hlis yog 66,600 tons, poob qis heev ntawm 38% los ntawm lub sijhawm tib yam xyoo tas los. Raws li kev tshuaj xyuas, kev nthuav dav ntawm Tuam Tshoj lub peev xwm tsim khoom epoxy resin, kev nce ntxiv ntawm kev muab khoom hauv tsev, thiab kev poob qis ntawm kev vam khom ntawm epoxy resin ntawm kev xa khoom yog cov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau kev poob qis ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov khoom xa tuaj ntawm epoxy resin. Kev xa khoom tau nce ntxiv ntau, thiab kev xa khoom tau dhau los ua txoj hauv kev zoo los siv cov khoom epoxy resin hauv tsev. Txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog lub Tsib Hlis, tag nrho cov khoom xa tawm ntawm epoxy resin tau txog 76,900 tons, nce txog li 77% piv rau lub sijhawm tib yam xyoo tas los.

Tam sim no, nws tau nkag mus rau ib nrab xyoo tom ntej, thiab qhov chaw nruab nrab ntawm lub ntiajteb txawj nqus ntawm epoxy resin tau rov qab los thiab nce siab raws li kev txhawb nqa ntawm tus nqi, tab sis tsis muaj kev txhim kho tseem ceeb hauv kev thov downstream. Kev muab khoom lag luam, tus nqi thiab kev thov downstream tseem yuav tsum tau pom.

1. Sab muab khoom: Kev muab khoom ntawm cov khoom siv epoxy resin yuav nce ntxiv

Raws li cov ntaub ntawv saib xyuas ntawm Longzhong Cov Ntaub Ntawv, tom qab xaus xyoo 2023, tseem muaj ntau dua 350,000 tons ntawm lub peev xwm tsim khoom tshiab ntawm epoxy resin npaj yuav muab tso rau hauv kev tsim khoom, thaum Tuam Tshoj lub hauv paus tsim khoom epoxy resin txuas ntxiv nthuav dav, kev muab khoom hauv tsev kuj tseem yuav loj hlob.

2. Tus nqi: kev txhawb nqa dav dav

Nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej ntawm xyoo 2023, bisphenol A tseem nyob rau hauv lub voj voog nthuav dav ntawm lub peev xwm, thiab ntau dua 1.5 lab tons / xyoo ntawm cov khoom siv tau npaj yuav muab tso rau hauv kev tsim khoom, thaum lwm cov khoom siv raw epichlorohydrin kuj muaj peev xwm nthuav dav, thiab kev muab khoom ntau dhau ntawm cov khoom siv raw ob npaug yuav txuas ntxiv mus, thiab feem ntau cov tuam txhab xav tias kev ua lag luam yuav nqaim dua hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej. Zuag qhia tag nrho, kev txhawb nqa ntawm cov khoom siv raw ob npaug rau kev ua lag luam epoxy resin yog dav dav.

3, kev thov: tsuas yog xav tau ua raws li, nws nyuaj rau txhim kho kom zoo

Los ntawm sab neeg siv khoom, cov epoxy resins feem ntau yog siv rau hauv lub zog cua, cov vaj huam sib luag tooj liab, cov txheej thiab lwm yam. Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej, kev siv epoxy resin kawg tseem tsis muaj qhov ci ntsa iab. Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev lag luam fais fab cua, xyoo 2022, Tuam Tshoj cov chaw tsim hluav taws xob cua yeej tag nrho 446 qhov project, tag nrho ntawm 86.9GW, nce 60.63%, qhov siab tshaj plaws, suav nrog cua av 71.2GW, cua hiav txwv 15.7GW. Xav txog lub voj voog tsim kho ntawm kwv yees li ib xyoos tom qab ua tiav kev twv txiaj fais fab cua, lub txhab nyiaj xav tias lub peev xwm tshiab ntawm cua av yuav tshaj 55GW hauv xyoo 2023, nce txog li 60%. Cua tshiab muaj peev xwm ntau dua 10GW, ntau dua ob npaug ntawm xyoo-rau-xyoo, kev thov fais fab cua rau epoxy resin yog qhov ruaj khov, kev ua lag luam tseem tuaj yeem ntxiv qee qhov kev ntseeg siab. Txawm li cas los xij, hais txog cov phaj tooj liab thiab cov txheej txheem, qhov kev thov hauv ib nrab xyoo tom qab Lub Xya Hli mus txog Lub Yim Hli tsis muaj zog, qhov kev thov rau epoxy resins raug txo qis, thiab ntau dua yuav tsum tau ua raws li, uas nyuaj rau tsim kev txhawb nqa zoo rau kev ua lag luam. Zuag qhia tag nrho, hauv ib nrab xyoo tom qab ntawm 2023, resin downstream terminal kev thov nyuaj rau muaj cov chaw ci ntsa iab.