Nkag mus rau xyoo 2023, cov epoxy resin hauv tsev txuas ntxiv nthuav dav, tab sis cov kev xav tau qis qis dua li qhov xav tau, qhov tsis sib xws ntawm cov khoom lag luam thiab cov kev xav tau tseem ceeb, thiab tus nqi lag luam tag nrho qhia txog kev poob qis. Qhov nqaim ntawm epoxy resin cov nyiaj tau los thiab kev poob ntawm kev lag luam muaj peev xwm siv tau dhau los ua cov yam ntxwv ntawm kev ua lag luam hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023, tab sis cov khoom xa tawm ntawm epoxy resin tau nce ntau dua piv rau tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, thiab cov ntshuam tau muaj. txo qis heev. Dab tsi yog cov xwm txheej tshiab hauv kev ua lag luam epoxy resin yuav tsum txhawj xeeb txog dab tsi, thiab kev lag luam yav tom ntej yuav txhim kho li cas?

Kev tshuaj xyuas cov yam ntxwv ntawm kev ua haujlwm ntawm epoxy resin ua lag luam hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023:

1. Tshiab tsim muaj peev xwm ntawm epoxy resin tseem raug tso tawm, thiab domestic ntau lawm nce

Raws li Longzhong cov ntaub ntawv soj ntsuam cov ntaub ntawv txheeb cais, txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog rau Lub Rau Hli 2023, lub peev xwm ntawm epoxy resin hauv tsev tau nthuav dav mus rau 3.182,500 tons / xyoo, thiab peb lub tuam txhab tshiab tau ntxiv, Zhejiang Haobang Phase II 80,000 tons / xyoo, Anhui stellar 25,000 tons / xyoo, Dongying Hebang 80,000 tons / xyoo, nrog tag nrho cov peev txheej tshiab ntawm 185,000 tons. Lub peev xwm tsim tau txhua hli ntawm cov resin tau nce mus rau 265,200 tons, nce ntawm 16.98%.

2, epoxy resin nqi nqes, tag nrho volatility yog tus nruab nrab

Txij li xyoo 2023, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm lub ntiajteb txawj nqus ntawm domestic epoxy resin tau hloov zuj zus mus. Raws li kev soj ntsuam cov ntaub ntawv ntawm Longzhong Cov Ntaub Ntawv, raws li lub Rau Hli 30, kev sib tham tseem ceeb ntawm cov kua epoxy resin nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Tuam Tshoj yog 12,000-12,500 yuan / ton, nqis 2,700 yuan / tuj txij thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo, nqis 18.12%; Tus nqi sib tham tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom epoxy resin hauv cheeb tsam Huangshan yog 12,000-12,500 yuan / tuj, nqis 2,300 yuan / tuj txij thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo, nqis 15.97%. Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, lub mainstream kev lag luam hloov pauv ntau yam yog 12,000-15,700 yuan / ton, nrog ib tug siab tshaj plaws amplitude ntawm 3,700 yuan / ton, thaum nyob rau tib lub sij hawm xyoo tas los, qhov kev hloov pauv yog 20800-29300 yuan / tuj, nrog lub siab tshaj plaws amplitude ntawm 8,500 yuan / ton. Hauv qhov sib piv, tus nqi hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom lag luam resin hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023 tau qis dua li lub sijhawm dhau los.

3, tag nrho cov txiaj ntsig ntawm epoxy resin tau poob qis, thiab kev siv tus nqi ntawm cov kua muaj peev xwm poob qis heev.

Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023, kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom siv davhlau ya nyob twg yog tsawg dua qhov xav tau, qhov tsis sib xws ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev thov ntawm epoxy resin yog qhov tseem ceeb, thiab cov nqi lag luam yog tag nrho qis. Txawm hais tias qhov nruab nrab ntawm lub ntiajteb txawj nqus ntawm cov ntaub ntawv raw kuj tsis muaj zog, qhov poob qis me dua li ntawm epoxy resin, thiab epoxy resin tau nkag mus rau hauv lub xeev poob txij lub Ob Hlis. Thaum kawg ntawm Lub Rau Hli, qhov poob siab tshaj plaws ntawm 788 yuan / tuj rau kua epoxy resin thiab 657 yuan / tuj rau khoom epoxy resin. Vim tias qhov poob ntawm cov txiaj ntsig loj hauv kev lag luam, cov tuam txhab ua kua epoxy resin tau txo qis ntau lawm thiab cov lus tsis zoo, qee lub tuam txhab tau siv lub sijhawm los kho dua, thiab kev siv peev xwm ntawm cov kua epoxy resin kev lag luam txuas ntxiv poob mus rau hauv 40%. hauv lub Rau Hli.

4, epoxy resin imports tau poob qis, tab sis kev xa tawm tau nce siab

Raws li kev soj ntsuam cov ntaub ntawv ntawm Longzhong Cov Ntaub Ntawv, tag nrho cov ntshuam ntawm epoxy resin nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj los ntawm Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Tsib Hlis yog 66,600 tons, qhov poob qis ntawm 38% ntawm tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los. Raws li kev txheeb xyuas, kev nthuav dav ntawm Tuam Tshoj lub peev xwm epoxy resin ntau lawm, kev nce ntau hauv cov khoom siv hauv tsev, thiab kev poob qis hauv kev vam khom ntawm epoxy resin ntawm kev xa khoom yog qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau kev poob hauv Suav teb epoxy resin imports. Kev xa tawm tau nce ntxiv, thiab kev xa tawm tau dhau los ua ib txoj hauv kev zoo rau kev haus cov epoxy resins hauv tsev. Txij Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Tsib Hlis, tag nrho cov khoom xa tawm ntawm epoxy resin mus txog 76,900 tons, nce li ntawm 77% ntawm tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los.

Tam sim no, nws tau nkag mus rau ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm lub ntiajteb txawj nqus ntawm epoxy resin tau rebounded thiab nce nyob rau hauv kev txhawb nqa ntawm tus nqi, tab sis tsis muaj kev txhim kho loj heev nyob rau hauv downstream thov. Kev lag luam khoom muag, nqi thiab kev xav tau hauv qab yuav tsum tau pom.

1. Cov khoom siv sab nraud: Cov khoom lag luam epoxy resin yuav tsum tau nce ntxiv

Raws li kev soj ntsuam cov ntaub ntawv ntawm Longzhong Cov Ntaub Ntawv, tom qab kawg ntawm 2023, tseem muaj ntau dua 350,000 tons ntawm cov khoom tsim tawm tshiab ntawm epoxy resin npaj los muab tso rau hauv kev tsim khoom, thaum Tuam Tshoj lub epoxy resin ntau lawm puag txuas ntxiv, cov khoom siv hauv tsev yuav kuj loj hlob.

2. Tus nqi: kev txhawb nqa dav dav

Nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm 2023, bisphenol A tseem nyob rau hauv lub centralized muaj peev xwm expansion voj voog, thiab ntau tshaj 1.5 lab tons / xyoo ntawm cov khoom yog npaj yuav muab tso rau hauv ntau lawm, thaum lwm yam raw khoom epichlorohydrin kuj muaj peev xwm nthuav, thiab oversupply ntawm ob npaug ntawm cov khoom siv raw yuav txuas ntxiv mus, thiab cov tuam txhab feem ntau cia siab tias kev lag luam yuav nqaim hauv ib nrab xyoo thib ob. Zuag qhia tag nrho, kev txhawb nqa ntawm ob chav raw khoom rau lub lag luam epoxy resin yog dav dav.

3, kev thov: tsuas yog yuav tsum tau ua raws li, nws nyuaj rau kev txhim kho ntau yam

Los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom, epoxy resins feem ntau yog nyob rau hauv cov cua zog, tooj liab clad panels, coatings thiab lwm yam. Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, qhov kawg noj ntawm epoxy resin tseem tsis muaj qhov kaj. Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev lag luam cua fais fab, xyoo 2022, Tuam Tshoj lub zog cua fais fab tau yeej tag nrho ntawm 446 txoj haujlwm, tag nrho ntawm 86.9GW, nce 60.63%, cov ntaub ntawv siab, suav nrog av cua 71.2GW, hiav txwv cua 15.7GW. Raws li kev tsim kho lub voj voog ntawm ib xyoos tom qab ua tiav ntawm kev sib tw cua fais fab, lub txhab nyiaj cia siab tias lub peev xwm tshiab ntawm av cua yuav tsum tshaj 55GW hauv 2023, nce li ntawm 60%. Cua tshiab ntsia muaj peev xwm ntawm ntau tshaj 10GW, ntau tshaj ob npaug rau xyoo-rau-xyoo, cua zog thov rau epoxy resin kuj ruaj khov, kev ua lag luam tseem tuaj yeem ntxiv qee qhov kev ntseeg siab. Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm tooj liab clad daim hlau thiab txheej, qhov kev thov nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo ntawm lub Xya hli ntuj mus rau lub yim hli ntuj yog kuj tsis muaj zog, qhov kev thov rau epoxy resins raug txo, thiab ntau yuav tsum tau ua raws li, uas yog ib qho nyuaj rau tsim kom haum. kev txhawb nqa rau kev ua lag luam. Zuag qhia tag nrho, nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm 2023, resin downstream davhlau ya nyob twg xav tau yog ib qho nyuaj rau muaj ntau yam kaj me ntsis.